Effective recruiting is all about landing the right message at the right time. We hear it, we say it, and it’s time to revisit it.  

Eduventures’ Admitted Student Research™ asks students, “When did you really know where you wanted to enroll?” It’s a question designed to pull at the heartstrings, revealing insight into when students truly knew where they would enroll rather than when they made their deposits. 

Increasingly, students report making their enrollment decisions in the fall, while the “traditional” spring yield season is shrinking. What does this trend look like and what do we know about the growing number of students making earlier decisions? 

Figure 1 shows when admitted students knew where they would enroll in each of the last seven years of Eduventures’ Admitted Student Research: either “fall or sooner” or “spring or later.” 

Figure 1.

Figure 1 shows that since 2018, there has been a 24-percentage point increase—a more than doubling— in the proportion of high school seniors who say they knew where they would enroll in the “fall or sooner” timeframe. This is a remarkable change in the timing of college commitment. Note that with the class of 2021 the timing slowed slightly but then the trendline reverts post-pandemic. And, in 2024, a year marked with FAFSA frustration, fall decision-making grew by six percentage points. 

What this means is that traditional seasons of “recruitment” and “yield” have blended. The most recent Admitted Student Research data (2024) shows that 43% of students decided in or before the fall vs. 55% in the spring or later. This stands in stark contrast to the 19%/81% split of admitted students in 2018.  

So, what kinds of students are making decisions earlier and who is sticking to traditional timelines? Figure 2 highlights key differences between fall and spring deciders.  

Figure 2.

Figure 2 shows that fall deciders are more “locked in” to their choice schools—with a greater proportion of students already living in their colleges’ backyards and enrolling in-state (73% fall vs. 65% spring). These students will likely have greater familiarity with their choice colleges as a result.  

The spring deciders indicate that affordability is a key enrollment driver, while fall deciding students are more motivated by career outcomes and their desired programs of study. This may reflect that fall deciders have more time during senior year to focus on the details of their college choices, which also shows in higher confidence levels in their college choices (very confident: 75% fall vs. 55% spring).When developing a multi-season yield strategy, this data suggests centering fall campaigns around career- or academic-focused content. 

Conversely, spring deciders are more open in their college choice considerations but for distinct reasons. A higher proportion of spring deciders cites affordability as their primary enrollment driver, and this is especially true for those who chose an in-state college. Spring deciders who enrolled at an out-of-state college are more likely to have a parent or guardian who went to college. 

Perhaps spring decision-makers are weighing all of their choices and have more choices to navigate. According to the 2024 Admitted Student Research, 67% of spring deciders noted applying to 5-10 colleges compared to 40% of fall deciders. Considering Figure 2’s insights on affordability, spring deciders aren’t just weighing “Where do I want to go?” but also “How will I pay for it?” and “What’s the bottom line?” For spring deciders, releases of information—admissions, financial, or otherwise—are some of the most opportune times for colleges to make an impact.   

The Bottom Line 

With greater visibility into shifts in high school seniors’ decision-making timelines, colleges will need to design recruitment strategies that account for year-long yield. Keep the following in mind: 

• Students don’t know what they don’t know. With more students closing their decision-making doors earlier, school and brand awareness is key. In considering this data alongside sliding national enrollment trends, there is clear value in engaging with students in meaningful ways earlier in their high school careers.   
• As student demand changes, college competition follows. Or is it the other way around? It is difficult to know if this shift in student decision-making drives admissions strategies or vice versa. Regardless, admissions and marketing teams need to be prepared with yield strategies ready in the fall coupled with strong outreach and awareness campaigns. Predictive models like Smart+® and Yield+™ help enrollment teams navigate the nuances of student decision making and support strategies throughout the enrollment cycle.