Eduventures Senior Analyst at Encoura

Emily Ross

How many times have you heard a colleague say, “I really think if we just focused on [ fill in the blank] more, we’d improve enrollment.” During yield season, everyone has an opinion, but how do you know whose hunch to follow? Eduventures data indicates that your colleague may be right. But you, or others who take a different view, may be as well. This is because the factors that motivate students to make their final enrollment decisions are far from homogeneous. In fact, no more than 16% of students agree on which “most important reason” tipped the scale. With limited time and resources, where can you focus messaging that will reinforce student decision making? 
The Most Important Reasons Motivating College Decisions Eduventures’ Admitted Student Research ™ asks students, “What was the  most important reason you have chosen to attend your college choice?” The greatest proportion of first-time students—only 16% of the sample—chose “Affordability,” followed by “Reputation/Academic Quality” and “Career Outcomes/Job Opportunities” at 13%. One way to make sense of such a wide dispersion of reasons driving student choice is to combine their responses into thematic areas. Figure 1 segments the “most important reasons” into broader themes and breaks out student responses by residency and institution type. 


Inside the Minds of College-Bound Students: What Really Drives Decision-Making

Cara Quackenbush, Executive Vice President of Eduventures Research at Encoura

Cara Quackenbush

In a year when higher education faces more than its share of challenges, it is encouraging to observe that colleges and universities have found renewed energy to tackle big problems. Each year, Eduventures showcases schools that embrace innovation. At last week’s 2025 Eduventures Summit, we highlighted pioneering advancements in AI education, dual enrollment, and online student success—among other initiatives.  For their innovative contributions, we congratulate  Florida Atlantic  University,  McMurry University,  Oregon State Ecampus, and  Suffolk University!  We also recognize the achievements of  Bowling Green State University,  Old Dominion University, and  National University of Singapore!  Here are their stories.


Celebrating Innovation in Higher Ed: 2025 Eduventures Innovation Award Winners

Vice President of Marketing

Maggie Lamond

As we sit amidst the morning buzz of Eduventures Summit 2025 — surrounded by visionary thinkers, bold ideas, and thought-provoking dialogue — we’re reminded of why we host this event year after year.Eduventures Summit isn’t just a conference — it’s where mission meets the moment. Where the most pressing challenges in higher ed meet cutting-edge research and where creative solutions are born out of real collaboration. The illumination, exposure, debate, and strategic clarity Summit aspires to achieve are vital if college and university leaders are to find their way through today’s market maze.If you were unable to join us this week in Chicago, we encourage you to keep Summit on your radar for future years.

Higher Ed Reimagined: Live from Chicago, It’s Eduventures Summit!

Eduventures Chief Research Officer at Encoura

Richard Garrett

Eduventures Summit 2025 is just one week away—we look forward to seeing you in Chicago! This is not just another year. Higher education is embattled and politicized as never before. Summit does not hide from politics, but we keep our eyes on long-term trends and higher education fundamentals while tackling the topics of the day.  Now is not the time to sit back. The time for shock is over.  Read on for highlights of our Summit 2025 agenda.  Don’t Worry … Be Prepared There is risk in overdoing the college confidence crisis. Just as surveys of college leaders juxtapose the sorry state of “other colleges” with the health of the respondent’s institution, Americans may say they have lost confidence in higher education generally, but they still send their kids (or enroll themselves) at a trusted local or national brand.  But there is also risk in business as usual. High school graduate numbers are going in the wrong direction as are college-going rates. Degree alternatives are mounting. If your institution is not a public flagship or an online giant, the road ahead is rocky. With federal funding now a political bargaining chip and Congress pushing for schools to pay back outstanding student debt, even flagships and giants may need a new playbook.  Whether shoring up demand, diversifying enrollment, rationalizing programming, strengthening outcomes (and perception of outcomes), or combating politicization, higher education leaders have their work cut out for them.  That’s where Eduventures Summit comes in. In two days, we will cover a lot of ground: Traditional Age Undergraduate Enrollment Kim Reid, Principal Analyst at Eduventures, will analyze how prospective students perceive college and university brands, and how institutional leaders can stand out.  A panel of enrollment vice presidents ( Aurora University, University of Texas, San Antonio) and CEOs ( College Vine, Element 451) will get real about where  AI is (and is not) gaining traction in the admissions office.  Drawing back the curtain on  Alpha Gen—the successors to Gen Z now enrolling in high school— Clint! Runge, an expert on marketing to young adults, will give his take on tomorrow’s targets.  Americus Reed, professor of marketing at  The Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, will unpack what other industries can teach higher education about brand loyalty.  Valencia Koker of  City Year, the feted K12 student mentoring program, will share stories of young lives transformed for mentees and mentors (typically high school or college students) alike. This learning model holds lessons for growing the college pipeline and helping undergraduates launch careers post-graduation.  Non-Traditional Students. Adult learners—particularly those with some credit but no degree—may prove essential if institutions are to avoid falling off the “demographic cliff.”  But—as yours truly,  Richard Garrett, Chief Research Officer, will share in my keynote—adult undergraduate enrollment collapsed over the past decade. Can colleges win back this market? There are positive signs but also unresolved issues.  A panel of three pioneers of reduced-credit bachelor’s degrees ( BYU Idaho, Johnson  Wales University, Northwood University) will make the case for shorter programs (and what that means for the four-year degree). Kathleen deLaski, founder of the  Education Design Lab and author of “Who Needs College Anymore?” will argue that investment in non-degree programming is vital to revive the postsecondary access agenda and heal partisan divisions (and how this is an opportunity for colleges and universities).  Managing the Political Climate. In turbulent times, cool heads are needed.  Jonathan Martin, Politics Bureau Chief at  Politico and former national political correspondent at the  New York Times, has seen this and other administrations up close. As we emerge from the early days of President Trump’s second term, Jonathan Martin will discuss how college leaders can sift symbolism from substance and get back on the front foot.  The Power of Dignity. The opening keynote on the final day of Summit will be delivered by  Tim Shriver, nephew of President Kennedy, former public-school teacher, and chairman of the Special Olympics . In 2022, Tim Shriver launched  The Dignity Index to highlight the deterioration of public discourse and foster renewed respect across racial, religious, and political lines. What does this mean for higher education in what some are calling a post-DEI, post-affirmative action era? But Wait, There’s More… Other Summit 2025 highlights include: Breakouts. As well as stellar keynotes, we will host multiple breakout sessions. Go deep on everything from bachelor’s degree ROI to AI-proofing your master’s portfolio and scaling online enrollment to balancing yield and melt in traditional age admissions.  Eduventures 2025 Innovation Awards. From another strong applicant pool, we have selected this year’s winners. Hear why these initiatives, from an array of institutions, made the grade.  The Bottom Line These are far from normal times for higher education. The unthinkable is everywhere.  The U.S. Department of Education has fired half its staff. Federal research agencies are reeling from draconian cuts, and some topics have been declared off-limits. Harvard University, emblematic of the preeminence of American higher education, is caught in a political battle of wills.  But—away from the feverish headlines and as some positive enrollment numbers remind us—higher education still has a good story to tell. Telling that story anew is part of the solution, but there remain uncomfortable questions about who college is for and what the experience should be.  Eduventures Summit will enhance your storytelling but also help unpack those tough questions.  Colleges and universities will always be vital. Colleges and universities have leverage and staying power. Colleges and universities know how to balance continuity and change. All the stress and strain will lead to something new. See you in Chicago! 

Eduventures Summit 2025 Preview: Not Your Average Year

Eduventures Principal Analyst at Encoura

Johanna Trovato

Why Religious Institutions Are Not Like Other Privates

Clint Raine

Just keeping up with the news today could be considered a full-time job. Federal grant freezes, potential changes to student loan programs, increased scrutiny of student visas, and other headlines are keeping higher education in the spotlight. The deluge of headlines has the potential to upend priorities and disrupt long-term planning.  How can colleges and universities keep up?  Periods of great change require clear models for change management. While short-term pressures are real and require attention, colleges and universities must not abandon long-term thinking. A Volatile External Environment Requires an Open Systems View Higher education’s external environment—the clash of demographic trends, economic conditions, politics, and evolving consumer preferences—is increasingly complex and shows no signs of settling down. But understanding the rapidly changing environment, and adapting to it, will determine a college or university’s ability to persevere through the next era of higher education.   As a thought exercise, let’s consider the demographic cliff. Figure 1 games out three potential first-time enrollment scenarios by applying varying levels of projected enrollment rates to the forecasted trends of graduating high school students:  the status quo,  a turn for the worse, and  beating the odds.   

Leading Through Disruption: How Clear Models Empower Strategic Change in Higher Ed

Last summer, Fidelity Investments released the results of its  College Savings Indicator study showing that 77% of parent respondents agree that the value of a college education is worth the cost, but 93% are concerned about rising college costs. While the report reads a bit like a pamphlet for a 529 college savings plan, Fidelity hired an independent research firm to conduct the study, and the research question has merit.  It is important to consider how these key influencers think about the cost of college. The Eduventures research confirms that cost is on many parents’ minds, especially the ones we would least expect. 
The Eduventures Prospective Parent Research™ also highlights concerns around the cost of college. In 2025, half of all parents wonder what it will really cost to attend college (the top question on parents’ minds), three-quarters have already discussed cost with their child, and 59% percent have a strong preference for their child’s college choice based on cost.  And yes, 79% of parents believe that a college degree will be “very” or “extremely” valuable for their child’s future success. College is worth it, but cost is a decision factor.  Paradoxically, while we would expect that cost-driven college preferences are even stronger among parents with lower household incomes, these parents show a stronger focus on reputation. Figure 1 shows the top six preferences driving college considerations among parents.

How Much Does College Cost Matter to Parents?

Chris Gardiner

When launching a new online master’s program, institutions often start by considering which successful campus-based programs they could put online. This strategy has become standard practice: CHLOE 9 found that two-thirds of chief online learning officers identified “creating online versions of on-campus degrees” as a top priority. For administrators, the promise of online enrollment and revenue growth is compelling. Faculty, however, worry about how the new online program might impact their existing programs. Program “cannibalization” is a frequent concern.  But do online and in-person master’s prospects have the same program preferences? What should your institution consider when launching an online master’s degree based on a successful in-person program? 
According to the National Student Clearinghouse, master’s enrollment grew by 3.3% from 2023 to 2024 and is now larger than the historic high point in 2021. This growth, however, is unlikely to be sustained due to the declining graduate enrollment rate, the looming graduate student demographic cliff (the ripple effect of the traditional undergraduate cliff), increased competition, and an unstable international market.  Given these challenges, institutions seeking enrollment growth are turning toward online opportunities, often by adapting successful campus-based programs. With a new program modality, enrollment "cannibalization" is a common and valid concern, however, it is important to identify how on-campus students differ from online students. Campus  Online Prospective Student Differences The Eduventures Adult Prospect Research™ asks prospective adult students which program features they would be willing to pay more for. As we know, affordability is a top consideration for all adult learners, so identifying what program features they place a premium on allows us to understand which features they value most. Figure 1 shows the top five features that both in-person and online master’s prospects would be willing to pay more for.  Figure 1. Campus/In-Person vs. Online Master’s Prospect’s Valuable Program Features 

In-Person vs. Online Master’s: Beware of the Cannibal Program!

In December 2024—little noticed in the U.S. amid the holidays and post-election exhaustion—the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released the results of its latest adult skills survey, spanning 160,000 respondents in 31 countries.  The report expressed concern that adult capabilities worldwide (U.S. included) are going in the wrong direction (even among adults with a postsecondary education), just as AI and geopolitical turbulence threaten to upend the status quo.  How do the results for U.S. adults with a postsecondary education compare to other countries, and what lessons do they offer for higher education leaders? 
Ill-Prepared for the Future The OECD’s  Survey of Adult Skills was first conducted more than a decade ago. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development—a club of mostly rich countries—wanted a skills measure independent of formal credentials that would permit cross-country comparisons. In a fast-changing world, the argument goes, adults need foundational skills more than ever, and it is in countries’ interests to measure them. The report notes that adults with superior skills earn more, are less likely to be unemployed, and achieve higher rates of civic participation.  The survey measures adult literacy, numeracy, and problem-solving. The tests gauge respondent ability to, for example, locate information in a piece of text or on a graph, evaluate the accuracy of a claim, and form and test a hypothesis. Test questions are grounded in familiar personal and occupational settings. There is a detailed  methodology. The test is administered to people aged 16-65 and takes 90-120 minutes to complete (for a $50 incentive). This is not a quick quiz; it is closer to the adult equivalent of the ACT or SAT.  Almost 9,000 Americans took the recent Survey of Adult Skills test. How did we do? Figure 1 looks at U.S. adults with a high school diploma (but without a postsecondary credential) tested in the latest round against the OECD average (mean) and benchmarked against the first round a decade ago. The problem-solving measure is not comparable between the first and second round, so only the latest data is shown. On all three metrics, a score of 500 is the highest possible (and zero the lowest).

Got Skills? Overlooked OECD Report Questions American Skills

As colleges worked feverishly to address the problems with the FAFSA for the class of 2024, high school students in lower grades looked on. Now seniors and juniors, Eduventures checked in with these students to determine what would help them navigate the financial aid process.  Interestingly, most students who plan on applying for financial aid indicated the greatest need for support in an area that is unrelated to the FAFSA fiasco: scholarships.
Figure 1 shows responses from current high school juniors and seniors to the question: “What would help you navigate the financial aid process better?” 


The Underlying Scholarship Search

We recently wrote about how earnings expectations among bachelor’s degree prospects soar above reality. In 2023, for example, Gen Z students expected to make more than $84,000 one year after completing their degrees, while the actual median earning for bachelor’s holders was about $44,500. These unmet expectations, realistic or not, can sour consumer opinion.  Our guidance? Colleges and universities need to play an active role in setting realistic expectations for students to counter the narrative of declining value. To begin this effort, we first need to understand what the bachelor’s earnings story really is.  Focus on the Long Game… and Early Successes Unrealistic earnings expectations diminish the real, positive earnings story for many bachelor’s completers. Indeed, over time, there is no question that more education pays off.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that median usual weekly earnings for workers aged 25 and older with a bachelor’s degree is $1,493 (or almost $78,000 in annual earnings). That’s about 40% higher than associate degree holders ($1,058), more than 50% higher than some college/no degree holders ($992), and over 65% higher than those with only a high school diploma ($899).  Like most investments, it takes time to pay off.  We can turn to the College Scorecard, however, to see the more immediate earnings story for bachelor’s completers from one- to five-years post degree completion. For example:  Fast earnings growth. For all bachelor’s degree completers, median annual salaries grow by 40% (around $18,000) from one- to five-years post degree completion (adjusted for inflation). Beating most other credentials. This 40% salary growth beats all sub-bachelor’s credential earnings and only lags the earnings growth experienced by first-professional degree completers (48%).  Boosted earnings power. The median bachelor’s degree holder makes 6% more than their associate degree holding peers one-year post completion. Five years after program completion, bachelor’s earnings stand at 28% above associate degree earnings ($62,502 vs. $48,784).  Improvement on income-to-debt. The median bachelor’s completer’s income to debt ratio grows from 1.8 (salary is 1.8 times their debt load) one-year post completion to 2.6 five-years post completion.  This data helps illustrate some of the successful outcomes for bachelor’s degree completers. It also shows that it doesn’t take a lifetime to see how the bachelor’s earnings trajectory deviates from other undergraduate credential outcomes.  The Field of Study Angle Of course, field of study plays a significant role in the outcomes story, and the benefit of College Scorecard data is that it reports earnings by undergraduate major— rather than by the bachelor’s completer’s job. This is particularly useful for understanding outcomes for majors where program-to-career articulation is more nebulous. For example, the author of this article majored in history but is not a practicing historian. Rather, he has spent time as a high school teacher, public policy analyst, and higher education market researcher.  To examine some earnings data by field of study, let’s focus on five broad fields: business, health, engineering, biological/biomedical sciences, and computer and information sciences. These fields have seen considerable growth at the bachelor’s level in recent years, and the bachelor’s market has intensely consolidated around these fields across several demand metrics.  For example, as Eduventures’  2024 Bachelor’s Market Update reported, about 49% of high school-aged college-bound prospects expressed interest in these fields, as did about 49% of prospective students’ parents. So, prospective student field of study interest, as influenced by their parents, has led to bachelor’s market concentration. As of 2023, 49% of all bachelor’s conferrals were reported in these five fields. In other words, the Big Five Fields alone represent about half of the bachelor’s market.  Are earnings outcomes fueling these trends?  Figure 1 details earnings for bachelor’s completers from the Big Five Fields of study one-year post bachelor’s completion.  

The Real Bachelor’s Degree Earnings Story

These are challenging times for student activism on college campuses. From pressures to abandon DEI efforts to controversies surrounding campus protests, highlighting social impact and political activism on campus has never been less palatable to recruiters. This comes at a time when Gen Alpha, purported to care deeply about social issues, enters the college pipeline.  Are we missing an opportunity if we mute the conversation around social issues and good citizenry at this time of generational transition? Or does Gen Alpha have other priorities when it comes to higher education? It's crucial to understand what this new generation expects from its college experiences. Now that Gen Alpha students are officially first-year high school students, Eduventures’ data can provide insight. An Informed Citizenry? Having had ubiquitous access to world news from an early age, Gen Alpha is predicted to be even more in tune with global and local issues, and more passionate about making an impact, than Gen Z. Presumably, this means that colleges must illustrate how they prepare their students to become advocates, change agents, and informed voters.  But this is a tall order in the current environment. The question is, does that drive for good citizenry enter into Gen Alpha’s college expectations? Figure 1 suggests that this desire is indeed growing among college-bound high schoolers. 
Figure 1.
Figure 1 compares the percentage of high school students— from grades 9-12—who indicated in 2025 that becoming “a good citizen” is an expectation they have for their college educations to the percentage of students who had this expectation in 2022.  In both 2025 and 2022, younger students were more interested in this personal growth goal than older students. This could be easily explained away as solely a function of age and maturity, and both likely play a role, were it not for the fact that more students overall cite this goal in 2025 compared to 2022. We see a small but noticeable increase between 2022 and 2025, but we should not rush to conclusions just yet. Here’s why: The 2025 data was collected shortly after a contentious presidential election, which may have influenced the responses of these students, most of whom were too young to vote. While the proportion of students with this goal has increased, it remains at the bottom of a list of seven personal growth goals in which students could express their interests. For most students, including ninth graders, personal growth in college is primarily about learning to be independent. A related expectation for college outcomes, “learning to use my talents to benefit society,” has not experienced significant change from 2022 to 2025. While in the top five desired college outcomes in both years, this expectation falls behind more practical outcomes like “getting a job after graduation” or “building a foundation for an entire career.”  Put Your Own Oxygen Mask on First While Gen Alpha—like Gen Z—shows some interest in social impact and civic growth during their college years, we only see a small increase as the college pipeline transitions from one generation to another. Does this mean that previous assertions by generational researchers about Gen Alpha’s high interest in advocacy and impact were wrong?  Not necessarily. Perhaps these earliest Gen Alpha members still want to change the world but do not see college as a prerequisite or primary venue to doing so. Indeed, Figure 2 suggests that in the mind of current college-bound ninth grade students, college is the means to an end. 
Figure 2.
Most college-bound ninth graders believe that college is necessary to  find a good job,  earn a good salary, and  have a long-term career. When it comes to altruistic goals like making an impact on the world or becoming an informed citizen, the percentage of students who think a college education is necessary to achieve these drops considerably. Only about half of ninth graders think this is true. The insights align strongly with what students in past years and across all observed class years have been telling us about their expectations for college:  College should prepare students for jobs and careers, above all else. This first cohort of Gen Alpha does not diverge from this line of thinking. While a good proportion of students do show interest in making an impact and being informed, these goals take a back seat to economic and financial security. This should not be surprising. Higher education is facing an affordability crisis, and students are acutely aware of the costs and the potential debt burden associated with their educations. Changing the world is fine, but you must help yourself before you can help others. Young people, whether they belong to Gen Z or Gen Alpha, might feel empowered to drive social change independently and expect institutions—like colleges or political parties—to help them establish a secure foundation for this purpose. Or perhaps they don’t trust that these institutions will teach them how to be who they  want to be but rather who institutions think they  should be.  
The Bottom Line Overall, this early look at the first Gen Alpha cohort does  not suggest that colleges should double down on social impact messaging. It does suggest the following: Outcomes come first. Gen Alpha, like Gen Z, wants to know that their investment in college will be worth it. Previous Eduventures research has shown that enrollment success is tied to strong outcomes (like graduation and retention rates), low student debt, and higher earnings.  Colleges should focus on improving and communicating outcomes metrics to remain relevant for this new generation. But don’t completely ignore social impact. Social impact still matters to many students. This secondary goal should not be entirely omitted from the recruitment conversation. But how it is conveyed matters. Rather than highlighting your own institutional values, show how you help students discover, live, and work by their own values. Don’t forget to tie this into career success messaging.  For example, highlight how graduates from your institution make a positive impact through their careers, and how their educations prepared them for this path. 

Recruiting Gen Alpha: What Messaging Matters Most?

For months, headlines about funding cuts and visa revocations have cautioned institutions to brace for declines in international enrollment. While the outlook for campus-based international students feels increasingly uncertain, some schools are turning their attentions to a different opportunity:  fully online international enrollment. Historically, international students enrolled in online programs have prioritized a combination of high brand reputation and low tuition—ala Georgia Tech’s suite of technology master’s degrees.  But there are signs that this formula may be shifting.  Is it time for institutions beyond the top-tier national brands to investigate this opportunity? Online International Market Evolution In 2010, international students enrolling in online programs was out of the question. Recall that about a decade ago, Georgia Tech launched its Online Master’s in Computer Science (2014) program, and University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) launched its Master’s in Data Science and iMBA programs (2016). These programs created a “blueprint” that many institutions have tried to replicate. According to IPEDS, the number of graduate students enrolled “outside of the U.S.” grew 56% between 2014 and 2019 (from 14,708 to 22,908) and doubled during the pandemic years (from 23,000 in 2019 to 47,000 in 2023). But despite strong growth, this market represents only 3.7% of the total online graduate market, making it small but emerging.  Figure 1 shows the online graduate enrollment from outside the U.S. between 2014 and 2023.  

Online International Students: Is the Blueprint Changing?

Principal Research Analyst

Core:Section

The most difficult aspect of yield is differentiating your institution at the finish line, especially among out-of-state students. These students overwhelmingly tell us that the quality of core academics, like the availability of their majors of interest, drives their final enrollment decisions. But our statistical analysis clearly shows that factors like the physical and social environment seem to make a bigger—and perhaps subconscious—impact. So, who is right, the student or the science? If a student has done their homework and applied to schools that would be a good fit, the final choices often look quite similar on the surface: same majors, costs, and reputations. Helping students understand the nuances of the final decision will tip the decision in favor of your institution.
To do this, the first question we must ask is: what is the decision endgame for the typical out-of-state student? The Eduventures Admitted Student Research™ indicates that the final enrollment decision among these students is often apples-to-apples, at least apples-to-pears, and rarely apples-to-oranges.  Figure 1 shows the second-choice institutions for students who decided to enroll in an out-of-state public or private institution.   	Figure 1. For students who enroll in out-of-state public institutions, the final choice is overwhelmingly apples-to-apples. Three quarters of students who enrolled in an out-of-state public institution had a second choice that was also an out-of-state public institution.  For students who enroll in out-of-state private institutions, the final choice is more apples-to-pears. Almost all students (96%) enrolling in an out-of-state private institution had another out-of-state institution as a second choice. But that competition is nearly evenly split between out-of-state publics (48%) and out-of-state privates (46%).Students attending out-of-state public institutions said that core academics (64%), affordability (50%), and the social environment (40%) were the top three enrollment drivers influencing their enrollment decisions. Out-of-state private institution students said their top drivers were core academics (69%), academic environment (48%), and affordability (45%).  These, however, are stated importance values—how the students answer our survey questions. In other words, they represent the student’s’ conscious thoughts about their decisions.  But we also know the derived importance of these enrollment drivers on student enrollment decisions. Using regression analysis, we can understand what may unconsciously drive final decisions between the enrollment school and the next best alternative.   Analyzing stated vs. derived importance helps us understand how to differentiate similar institutions to yield out-of-state students. Figure 2 plots both the stated value associated with each enrollment driver (x axis) against the derived value (y axis) of each enrollment driver among students attending out-of-state public institutions.  	Figure 2. Notably, core academics—the top stated enrollment driver for out-of-state public students (top, left quadrant)—was not nearly as important in the derived analysis. In fact, it wasn’t important at all. According to our derived analysis, the physical environment, in close competition with several others, comes out on top (bottom right quadrant). Why is that? That’s because students’ second choice institutions probably offered very similar core academic experiences and affordability as their enrollment schools. So, these are not differentiators. These are, however, required attributes for your institution. Without core academic quality and, to a lesser extent, affordability, you wouldn’t be in a position to enroll the student at all.  So, what is driving the final decision? No single driver stands out. Social environment and physical environment come the closest, but these are hidden drivers. Students said these drivers weren’t very important, but they turned out to have an outside influence on their decisions. This means that when all else is equal, perceived quality in the social, physical, and academic environments will push students to choose you as an out-of-state destination. The opportunity to differentiate lies in these hidden drivers. Career outcomes falls into the nebulous area of the marginal driver; it was moderately important in both stated and derived analysis. It’s worth mentioning, but it won’t make much of a difference in the end. It is something the students considered in developing a major interest and finding institutions that could serve that interest. This is a conversation that must happen early in the enrollment funnel.  Applying this analysis to students who choose private institutions yields similar, but not quite the same, results (Figure 3).  	Figure 3. For private out-of-state schools, core academics is still a required price of entry as is affordability (albeit to a much lesser extent). But in the final decision, the academic environment is the prime driver of student decision-making.  The social environment and physical environment are the most critical hidden drivers, and career outcomes still occupies that marginal space of modest importance. Yield strategy for out-of-state private institutions must follow this structure:  Remind students of the academic strength that drew them to your institution in the first place. Confront the challenge of affordability. Elevate the narrative on academic environment. Build the contextual understanding of your social and physical environments. Confirm the development of career outcomes. The Bottom LineTo yield out-of-state students, you must go beyond the central message of core academic strength that brought you to this point in the decision cycle. If you don’t build depth and differentiation, you won’t win the head-to-head comparison with that institution that looks a lot like yours. 

Decision Drivers For Out-Of-State Students

Transfer students are notoriously pragmatic. Eduventures’ research has continuously shown that transfer prospects weigh practical factors when considering a transfer destination: availability of financial aid, cost of tuition, and availability of their chosen majors are consistently the top criteria.On paper, these students resemble homo economicus, those who make decisions solely based on rationality and self-interest. But the concept of homo economicus has been debunked. Humans are inherently irrational beings. Therefore, perhaps there is more to the decision making of transfer students than these students are willing to admit?Figure 1, based on Eduventures’ Transfer Student Research™, shows that three of the top five factors influencing transfer school selection involve cost either directly or indirectly, such as financial aid availability and the “number of credits I can transfer.”Figure 1.Figure 1 also reveals that, early in the enrollment funnel, academic strength—rankings, reputation, or perceived rigor—does not seem to matter nearly as much as cost and other practical considerations like availability of desired major and location. At face value, transfer prospects agree that they are indeed pragmatic customers.But once these students apply and are accepted to transfer schools that meet their criteria, do their enrollment choices really come down to which schools will be the cheapest to attend?According to our Admitted Student Research™, this might not be the case. Table 1 shows the percentage of transfer students who rated their enrollment choices and their next closest alternative choices as either “very good” or “excellent” on seven enrollment drivers.
Admitted Transfer Students: Quality Ratings of Enrolling Transfer School and Alternative Choice 

Are Transfer Students Really That Pragmatic?

More programs continue to move online, especially at the graduate level. According to IPEDS, more than 6,800 new online graduate programs were added between 2019 and 2022, and online graduate enrollment grew by 250,000.  This continuing growth is good news for online programming, but it also poses a challenge for institutions looking to enter or expand their online footprints. The more online programs there are, the harder it is to stand out. To help institutions gain valuable competitive intelligence, Eduventures is turning to a new data source—one that can help institutions benchmark online programs and reveal how to differentiate in mature markets. A Crowded Online MarketThe pandemic prompted more institutions to make online learning a priority—to increase access, broaden reach, and, of course, grow enrollment.  According to our CHLOE 8 Report, chief online officers (COOs) estimated that interest in online program options has not yet peaked. In fact, 50% of COOs reported either moderate growth (4% to 9%) or strong growth (more than or equal to 10%) in graduate online enrollment between 2021 and 2022.  Figure 1 shows that graduate online enrollment (exclusively distance) grew by 47% between fall 2017 and fall 2022, and hybrid graduate enrollment (some distance) grew by 75%. On the other hand, campus graduate enrollment declined by 19%.    Figure 1. During the reporting years of 2020 and 2021, there was considerable ‘noise’ in enrollment numbers as many institutions grappled with the pandemic disruption and return-to-campus in fall 2021. Therefore, fall 2022, in our estimation, resembles ‘back to normal’ reporting. Because of this, it is best to compare 2019 and prior years to 2022. Online (exclusively distance) graduate student enrollment increased by more than 250,000 in fall 2022 compared to 2019, while campus-based student enrollment dropped by more than 290,000. This trend toward online programs has reinforced the idea that online graduate programming could be a crucial source of income, prompting many institutions to assess both new and existing programs that could be offered online. But launching an online program can be risky. How to Compete in a Crowded MarketOf the more than 6,800 new online graduate programs launched between 2019 and 2022, 51% were online master’s degrees. This rapid online program growth has exacerbated the pre-pandemic challenge of rising costs related to marketing and recruiting online students. This makes it imperative for institutions to understand their competitors and truly see which programs students are choosing. While online programs fundamentally have national reach, there is evidence that most students enroll with an institution located within 50 miles of where they live. Therefore, institutions need to understand national online market trends, but should tailor programs to stand out in the regional market. But it can be overwhelming to identify, catalog, and analyze online program competitors. Enter the Online Degree Database® which has compiled 30+ distinct online program characteristics for over 6,500 distinct online programs. What does this database allow us to understand? Let’s take a look at the Master of Business Administration, the single largest master’s program and a stalwart online program. Looking at the national landscape, here are some key program data and characteristics for the online MBA market. There are 565 institutions that offer online MBA programs nationally. Forty-four of the top 100 nationally ranked institutions in the U.S. News  World Report ranking offer online MBAs. AACSB is the most common accreditation among all online MBA programs. Programs range from only 30 total credits up to 72. The national average total program tuition cost (not including fees) is $30,627. Health Care Administration/Management is the most commonly offered concentration.  By using these program features, institutions assessing their online programs can see how they compare to other online market options and be more prepared to change and improve their program offerings and positioning. The Bottom LineInstitutions face mounting pressure to increase enrollment and online programs are widely regarded as a viable option. The online competitive landscape has become increasingly crowded, making it harder and harder to successfully launch new programs. This may continue for a while.  Eduventures can provide valuable insight into how best to position online programs and attract more of the right prospective students. Below are some scenarios that the Online Degree Database allows insight into. We think our online programs might be too expensive. Where does my institution stand on total program cost? We want to add a new concentration to our online master’s degree. Which concentrations are most offered already? Applicants are balking at taking an entrance exam (GRE, GMAT, etc.). Which of our competitors require an admissions test and do some have waivers? Our new online program wants to include an on-campus requirement. Are there competitor programs that require just a single campus intensive/immersion? The answers to these questions depend on the specific online program and region of the institution. 

Which Online Programs Are You Competing Against?

Among adult prospects, master’s degree interest has fallen alongside the rise of the non-degree market. Indeed, the National Student Clearinghouse reported a 1.2% enrollment decline in fall 2022—the first in many years. Fall 2023 data reveals that the market is holding steady but remains below 2021 levels.  Some schools have turned to combined degree programs (bachelor’s + master’s) as a strategic gambit to ignite interest among a younger student cohort and keep them enrolled for an additional year or two. But a recurring narrative has emerged from schools expressing disappointment that these programs often fall short of expectations.  This suggests that institutions have not been as strategic as necessary to launch such programs, begging the question: who exactly are combined degree prospects? Growing InterestCombined or accelerated degree programs (e.g., 4+1 or 3+2 bachelor’s-to-master’s degree programs) can be a win-win proposition. Students benefit from fast-tracked programming that saves time and money and equips them with advanced skills to enter the labor market in a specialized field. Institutions benefit from creating more reliable master’s program pipelines and cultivating brand loyalty.  But sizing the combined degree market is challenging. There is no data source that reports on these programs specifically, and NCES IPEDS data requires triangulation and will only get you so far. Where program market data is lacking, however, Eduventures has robust information about who combined degree prospects are and what expectations and preferences they have for their higher education journeys. Eduventures’ Prospective Student Research™ reveals that the proportion of combined degree-interest prospects has grown in the post-pandemic college pipeline. When asked which path prospects were most likely to pursue for their first degree, 11% of high school sophomores, juniors, and seniors surveyed in 2019 responded “complete a five-year bachelor’s-to-master’s program.” In 2023, this prospect group rose to 14%—a statistically significant increase.   In an increasingly competitive market, tapping into this interest earlier may become more critical for schools looking to boost differentiation or maintain master’s market share. Who are these combined degree prospects?First and foremost, combined degree prospects have a higher level of confidence and maturity than their peers. For example, combined degree prospects are more likely than their peers to view college as a means of learning professional conduct and gaining knowledge. On the flip side, their peers more often cite expectations for learning responsibility and developing self-esteem.  Eduventures’ Prospective Student Mindsets™ (Mindsets) shed further light on these prospects’ core motivations. Figure 1 compares Mindset distribution between combined degree prospects and their peers.Figure 1. This indicates that 62% of combined degree prospects fall into either the Grad School Bound, Career Pragmatist, or Experiential Interest Mindsets, compared to 50% of their peers (with statistically higher incidence in the Grad School Bound and Experiential Interest Mindsets). This reveals that combined degree prospects are mostly driven by academics and career rather than other kinds of college experiences.  While it’s not surprising that the highest proportion of these prospects are Grad School Bound (24%), additional details offer more insight. Let’s consider some of the underlying responses that inform the Mindset analysis:  Top Expectations: Like all other prospective students, getting a good job after graduation is the top expectation for combined degree prospects, but there is some daylight between these two groups. For example, combined degree prospects report higher expectations around “master an academic subject,” “learn to be a leader,” “gain scientific, math, or tech skills,” and “learn how to conduct research” compared to their peers.  Top Learning Experiences: While all other prospects report higher emphasis around “interactions with other students,” “cultural events on campus,” and “participation in clubs,” combined degree prospects report higher expectations around learning from “internships,” “research opportunities with faculty,” and “work study employment.” Application Drivers: While all prospects report “academic strength” as the top application driver, combined degree prospects placed even higher importance on this characteristic (57% vs. 65%) which includes things like program quality and faculty expertise. A school’s social environment, on the other hand, is less important for this group. Another key piece of information is what they want to study. Figure 2 compares field of study interest between combined degree prospects and all others.   Figure 2. Health is the top broad field of interest for both prospect groups. Engineering, however, is the second top field of interest for combined degree prospects, while business enters the second spot for all other prospects. Aside from those two fields, combined degree prospects also report statistically higher interest in psychology and architecture.  The Bottom LineThrough our Prospective Student Brand Data, a profile of combined degree prospects emerges. These prospects are driven by academics as a pathway to graduate school, which is viewed as a springboard to a career. They want to master an academic subject and learn critical skills – and do so through hands-on experiences like internships and research. A school’s academic quality, which impacts individual program quality, is their top interest driver.  Insights like these can help institutions craft more effective messaging for combined degree programs and, more critically, craft the desired student experience within these degree programs to ensure prospects find what they are looking for.  

The Combined Bachelor’s-to-Master’s Student Prospect

The webinar explores recent data on changing perspectives of adult and graduate students towards education in 2024, offering insights into adapting digital marketing strategies to effectively engage this demographic and boost recruitment efforts.

Digitally Engaging Grad and Adult Learners to Strengthen Recruitment

Explore the landscape of online higher education as we delve into market trends, student characteristics, and enrollment predictions. Gain insights to enhance your institution’s online programs and recruitment strategies. 

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Online Higher Education Market Update: Consolidation, Demographics, & Outcomes

Eduventures Adult Prospect Research data suggests important changes in how prospective graduate students are thinking about education in 2024.

Recruiting Today’s Graduate Students: Master’s Market Insights & Future-Proof Strategies

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