Do you fill your online shopping cart with items only to narrow it to a select few by the time you purchase? Do you queue up shows, movies, podcasts, or music you never get through? You may be more like today’s prospective students than you think.
Prospective students are applying to more schools than ever before — but the Eduventures Admitted Student Research™ suggests that an increasing share of those applications reflect low-intent exploration rather than serious consideration.
More Applications, More Questions
At the national level, growth in applications and admissions is not a new phenomenon. Figure 1 shows the past 10 years of applications and yield rates across four-year public and private non-profit institutions.
Applications have steadily increased over time, while national yield rates have consistently declined. A college student today applies to more schools, highlighting a competitive enrollment landscape. But these trends raise an important question: what do these additional applications actually represent?
Figure 1 captures volume, but not intent. To understand how students think about the colleges they apply to, we need to know their perspectives. The Eduventures Admitted Student Research provides that context.
In this annual study, we ask students about colleges they were admitted to but ultimately didn’t enroll at, as well as how close students were to choosing those institutions. Figure 2 compares first-time-in-college student responses from 2022 to 2025.
While Figure 1 might suggest growing student interest, Figure 2 tells a different story — one of diluted interest. From 2022 to 2025, it shows a slow erosion in the share of students who say they were “very or extremely close” to enrolling at the college they did not choose, alongside an increase in those who say they were “not very or at all close.”
At the same time, another trend is moving in the opposite direction: students are making their college decisions earlier. Among fall deciders, 50% say they knew where they wanted to enroll before September — often before senior year even began. In other words, while students are applying to more schools, a growing share is doing so after they’ve already decided where they want to enroll.
Why All the Application Work if the Interest Isn’t as Strong?
Part of the answer is structural. Colleges have worked diligently to remove friction from the application process. The Common Application, self-reported grades, fee waivers, and direct admission pathways have all contributed to a more streamlined application.
In some cases, students don’t even need to hit “submit.” In 2024, 18% of first-time students shared they were admitted to a college without a completed application; in 2025 that number grew to 20%. These innovative application strategies require continued creative thinking throughout the funnel and a rethinking of traditional outreach efforts.
The Bottom Line
Students are applying to more colleges, but engaging less deeply with each one. As the admissions landscape grows more competitive, yield strategies — and expectations — need to adjust. Historical metrics remain important, but they don’t capture how student behavior has changed.
Figure 2 gives voice to the anecdotal yield experiences of many admissions teams. Students are making up their mind earlier than ever, but that hasn’t stopped them from putting their hat in the ring — or from responding to colleges that come to them with proactive admissions offers.
To navigate these realities, institutions should consider making a few adjustments:
- Adjust expectations. Figures 1 and 2 point to a long-building reality: yield rates have been declining for years, and with a shrinking high school population, there is little reason to expect that trend to reverse. While your team may be savvy to this context, it’s also important that it’s understood across campus — and reflected in planning, forecasting, and goal setting.
- Pair proactive application efforts with proactive outreach. Expanding application access is a win, but it requires follow-up throughout the rest of the funnel. Students admitted through proactive or streamlined pathways are not traditional applicants and treating them as such risks missing the mark. Outreach strategies should reflect how students entered the process.
- Build early connections. With more students deciding sooner, engagement needs to start sooner. Schools that wait until senior year to build relationships risk entering the conversation too late. Earlier outreach can meaningfully shape student awareness before they begin narrowing their options.
